Valuations

3336.HK, the market is pricing in about 5% ROE for this company at $2.20ish, that is the ROE it achieved last year despite extremely adverse conditions. It even announced a positive profit alert this year, surely the first half cannot be worse than that of last corresponding period for its core operations. Even if the ultrabook concept fails miserably, and the world comes to a collapse in the second half of 2012, this company is still quite reasonable to cheap. When it was rumbling along $1 early this year, it was clearly mispriced considerably. I hate it how people say, oh it has gone up so much this year it must be expensive, vice versa for those that dropped a lot. Stupid.

Take a look at 2678.HK, it is now at $2.5, the market thinks it is worth around 7% ROE, which was the ROE it achieved last year. This company went all the way up to $3.5 this year. It even announced a profit warning this year. Why the optimistic forecast?

And 2698.HK, the market prices at around 0.3% ROE, that is miserably low but then it achieved a negative ROE last year, I think it will get another real loss this year as well. I don’t doubt this stock will get lower if there is not a sharp positive turn any time soon.

Looking at 1888.HK, it is priced around 7.5% ROE right now. Last year it achieved 13%ish ROE. I think this year it might get lower than 7.5%, but I can’t tell right now. These bigger companies are usually quite fairly valued most of the time. I also think their management buying back so many of its shares is distorting its share price. They still have a ton of cash in their bank though.

477.HK, this is probably the most expensive company in my portfolio. My purchase price is around 13% ROE, things are not good this year especially to do with discretionary consumption. But it certainly costs more to own a company that is ranked number 1 in their industry.

3398.HK, cheap things will get cheaper. It is valued around 2.5% ROE, I paid around 4%. This year ain’t going to be a good year for them.

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