According to Wang Ya Yuan, there seems to be two main themes about tablet/smart phone supply chain among institutional research analysis. First theme is the rise of low end to mid end manufacturers, second is the dependence on large manufacturers.
I think the first theme is already a year late. The rise of cheap but popular tablets and smart phones was already there at least a year ago. A lot of small but able suppliers already got the orders rolling in, and profits skyrocketed through the roof. The smart money already made the big bucks, and taken some significant profits. This might hopefully continue well into 2013.
The large manufacturers are not going away either. With demand still intact, large suppliers will inevitably get orders. The problem with growth on previous years’ earnings is a different issue all together. I reckon it is pretty good to have stable earnings. Big consumer brands like Apple, Samsung or Google will still need to depend on large suppliers. I suspect large suppliers will continually grow inline with the trend of the tablet/smart phone market.
The problem with investment research is that they are always too late. They are trying to predict what is insignificant or impossible. The themes they are trying to predict do not have significant investment value and therefore they are just throwing good money into a profitless research department.
She further mentioned future hardware upgrades will be focused on screens and cameras, rather than speakers. This is just a load of baloney she conjured up to fit the empty space on the newspaper. She wrote that consumers are more visual rather than auditory so they demand more visually advanced products. That might be true for her, but certainly not for all consumers. The screens and cameras have gotten to a level where any incremental improvements will prove to be valueless. The screens are already so good that any small improvements will not invite significant increased demand. What we really need now is some sort of revolution, rather than evolution like we have seen since the invention of the iPhone and iPad.